India, once renowned for its soaring population growth, is now experiencing a remarkable demographic shift. The fertility rate in the country has dropped to 2 children per woman as of 2024, a stark contrast to the 6.2 children per woman recorded in 1950, according to the United Nations. While this development aligns with global trends, it brings both opportunities and challenges for the nation.

Why Are Fertility Rates Falling?

The decreasing fertility rate in India can be attributed to several interrelated factors:

1. Urbanization and Evolving Lifestyles
   As urbanization accelerates, women have greater access to education, professional opportunities, and healthcare, enabling them to choose smaller families. Moreover, a focus on career development has led to delayed marriages, which shortens the reproductive window.

2. Awareness of Family Planning
   Increased availability of contraceptives and access to family planning services have empowered couples to make informed decisions about their family size.

3. Economic Constraints
   Rising costs of living, especially in urban areas, discourage families from having multiple children. The financial strain of providing quality education, healthcare, and housing further drives the preference for smaller families.

India is not alone in this demographic transition. Nations such as Japan and South Korea are already grappling with ultra-low fertility rates, which have widespread implications for economic growth and social structures.

Positive Effects: A Path to Enhanced Living Standards

While a declining fertility rate may raise concerns, it also brings notable benefits to Indian society:

1. Improved Living Standards
   With fewer dependents, families can allocate resources more efficiently, leading to better access to education, healthcare, and housing.

2. Sustainable Resource Use
   Slower population growth eases pressure on critical resources such as water, land, and energy. This is especially important in a country as resource-constrained as India.

3. Empowerment of Women
   Smaller family sizes open up opportunities for women to pursue higher education and establish careers, thereby contributing to economic growth and societal progress.

As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen once remarked, “Empowering women through education and resources is the most sustainable way to tackle population concerns.”

Negative Impacts: Economic and Demographic Challenges

While the positives are noteworthy, declining fertility rates also bring significant challenges:

1. Population Aging
   By 2050, India is projected to see a sharp rise in its elderly population. This will put considerable pressure on healthcare systems and pension funds.

2. Labour Shortages
   A smaller working-age population could disrupt economic growth, especially in labor-intensive industries. This is already evident in countries like Japan, where an aging population has led to stagnation.

3. Erosion of the Demographic Dividend
   India currently enjoys a demographic dividend, with a large proportion of its population under the age of 25. However, falling fertility rates could undermine this advantage, leading to a reduced youth population in the coming decades.

As Indian economist Arvind Panagariya notes, “The real challenge is managing the transition from a demographic dividend to an aging population without losing economic momentum.”

Shaping India’s Future

India’s declining fertility rate is set to reshape its socio-economic landscape, with far-reaching implications:

1. Increased Demand for Geriatric Care
   A rapidly growing elderly population will necessitate significant investments in geriatric care and healthcare infrastructure, particularly in rural areas that lag behind urban centers.

2. Focus on Education and Vocational Training
   With fewer children, families and policymakers have an opportunity to prioritize high-quality education and skill development. This could boost the nation’s productivity and global competitiveness.

3. Rural-Urban Disparities
   While urban areas may adapt more easily due to existing healthcare and infrastructure, rural regions could struggle with the challenges posed by an aging population.

By 2050, the global fertility rate is expected to drop from 2.3 in 2021 to 1.8, according to projections. Low-income countries, however, are expected to maintain higher fertility rates, highlighting stark disparities between regions.

Reference:

1. https://www.unfpa.org/data/IN

(Input from various sources)

(Rehash/Yash Kamble/MSM)