WASHINGTON — 

U.S. intelligence agencies charged with investigating the spate of brain injuries and other serious health ailments that have struck hundreds of officials remain unconvinced that the illnesses are tied to the work of a foreign adversary.

An updated intelligence assessment of what the U.S. government calls anomalous health incidents, or AHIs, released Friday calls the possibility that the health symptoms were caused by a foreign actor or weapon “very unlikely.”

The conclusion, endorsed by five of the seven U.S. intelligence agencies tasked with investigating the ailments, commonly known as Havana Syndrome, match the results of a 2023 assessment that found symptoms “were probably the result of factors that did not involve a foreign adversary, such as preexisting conditions, conventional illnesses and environmental factors."

New information, described by officials as being “sensitive” in nature, only served to further support the 2023 findings, they said.

"The intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement," according to a U.S. intelligence official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity to discuss the latest findings.

“All IC [intelligence community] components agree that years of history collection, targeting and analytic efforts have not surfaced compelling intelligence reporting that ties a foreign actor to any specific event reported as a possible AHI,” the official said.

The new assessment contrasts, however, with a December House Intelligence subcommittee report, which accused U.S. intelligence agencies of sloppy work and attempting to "create a politically palatable conclusion."

There is reliable evidence to suggest that some anomalous health incidents are the work of foreign adversaries," CIA Subcommittee Chairman Rick Crawford, a Republican, said at the time.

On Friday, the House Intelligence Committee chairman, Republican Mike Turner, accused the new U.S. intelligence report of again falling short.

“This new intelligence, I believe, should completely change the assessment of our adversaries’ capabilities and the risks to our personnel,” he said.

Despite the disagreement, some of the evidence pointing to foreign involvement in Havana Syndrome injuries appears to be finding more credibility with some elements of U.S. intelligence.

Two of the seven agencies contributing to the latest assessment, which looked at intelligence gathered as recently as last month, now assess with “low confidence” that a foreign hand could be involved in a limited number of cases.

One of the agencies now judges “there is ‘roughly even chance’ a foreign actor has used a novel weapon or prototype device to harm a small, undetermined subset of the USG [U.S. government] personnel or dependents,” according to the declassified assessment.

The other agency concluded there is a “roughly even chance” that a U.S. adversary has developed such a weapon, although the report states even if that is the case, “it is unlikely a foreign actor has deployed such a weapon in any events reported as possible AHIs.”

The U.S. intelligence official who spoke with reporters described the change as “subtle,” arguing, “they shift from unlikely with low confidence to roughly even chance with low confidence.”

But White House officials Friday seemed to see the change as something more significant.

“Today’s updated Intelligence Community Assessment, which is the product of ongoing analytic efforts and includes a shift in key judgments by some intelligence components,” said National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.

“[It] only reinforces why it is vital that the U.S. government continue critical research, investigate credible incidents and strengthen efforts to provide timely care and long-term clinical follow-up,” he said.

That includes ongoing research into the potential to weaponize pulsed electromatic energy.

A February 2022 report by a panel of experts warned that the core symptoms in a small number of Havana Syndrome cases were "distinctly unusual" and suggested some sort of device must be responsible.

"Pulsed electromagnetic energy, particularly in the radiofrequency range, plausibly explains the core characteristics," the 2022 report said.

(VOA/AK)