It's simple enough for parents to write off a child's protruding belly as mere, innocent "baby fat." But new Danish research says otherwise. A study spanning 10 years has determined that children who are at constantly rising levels of belly fat are more likely to develop heart disease, high blood pressure, and the beginnings of type 2 diabetes, all before their 10th birthday.
With rapidly rising rates of childhood obesity worldwide, it is important to understand how central obesity during childhood is already linked to early signs of metabolic deterioration, including elevated blood pressure and circulating biomarkers associated with future cardiometabolic disease."Dr. David Horner, lead author from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark
The research, presented at the 2025 European Congress on Obesity (ECO) in Malaga, Spain, is urging a rethink about when we ought to begin to measure children's body fat, especially around their midriff.
What the researchers found: 10 years of tracking belly fat
The researchers followed 700 children from birth through to age 10, measuring their waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) at 14 points in between. The researchers found three distinct patterns of growth:
Stable group (66%) - WHtR remained constant
Emerging then stable group (18%) - WHtR rose early, then plateaued
Slow-growing group (15%) - WHtR continued to rise.
These children in the slow-growing group had the most concerning health profiles at age 10. They showed signs of insulin resistance, raised blood pressure, increased levels of inflammatory markers, and low levels of "good" cholesterol (HDL).
Why the waist-to-height ratio is more important than BMI.
In contrast to BMI, which may fail to detect early problems with fat distribution, the waist-to-height ratio (waist over height) measures directly the belly fat, more injurious fat that encircles internal organs.
The researchers discovered that a child's waist measurement at age 10 was a good predictor of health hazards over and above the rate of weight gain in itself. Where a child is is more significant than how they arrived there.
As Dr. Horner explains: "This means that the children's current level of abdominal fat--not just how their fat developed over time-was the strongest predictor of their heart and metabolic health. Once this factor was included in the analysis, the earlier pattern of gradual fat gain ("slow-rising" group) was no longer linked to higher risk on its own. This suggests that where a child ends up, how much belly fat they have at age 10, matters more than how they got there. In other words, it's the amount of central fat at that age, not necessarily the pattern of gain over time, that plays the biggest role in determining their present-day risk for heart and metabolic problems."
The hidden dangers of childhood obesity
Excessive belly fat (central obesity) is linked to:
Chronic inflammation
High blood pressure
Insulin resistance
Dyslipidemia levels
Lab tests in these children showed elevated C-peptide, glycoprotein acetylases (GlycA), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), all warning signs for a heightened risk of heart disease or metabolic syndrome.
"Our findings highlight that an elevated waist-to-height ratio at age 10 is a key clinical indicator of cardiometabolic risk in children. This reinforces the importance of monitoring central obesity in routine care, not only tracking weight, but specifically measures of central obesity as part of standard assessments. As clinical focus shifts from weight alone to identifying children with early signs of metabolic risk, waist-to-height ratio offers a simple and effective tool for detecting central obesity with cardiometabolic relevance. Identifying children with elevated ratios can help clinicians target those at greater risk of metabolic dysfunction, supporting more personalised interventions and early prevention of long-term complications," said Dr. Horner
What can parents do early on?
The good news? These changes don't have a high price tag in terms of detection, only a measuring tape and routine check-ups. Here's what parents can do:
Monitor your child's waist-to-height ratio with a pediatrician's guidance.
Promote physical activity daily (at least 60 minutes)
Emphasize a balanced diet low in sugar.
Restrict screen time and ensure good sleep.
Ensure healthy family habits by leading by example.
Don't wait, prevention is possible before age 5.
Research shows that these risk patterns begin in childhood or adolescence, not just school age. Waist measurements, height, and weight must be incorporated into early well-child visits.
Dr. David Horner, lead researcher at the University of Copenhagen, puts it plainly: “We’re not just looking at future problems—some children are already developing metabolic risk by age 10.”
A simple tool, a healthy future
This study can revolutionize the way we talk about child obesity. By measuring the waist-to-height ratio at a young age, parents and medical professionals can detect silent health threats and intervene before irreparable damage is caused.
It's not body shaming - it's building a healthy future, step by step.
Reference:
1. Horner, David, Bo Chawes, Klaus Bønnelykke, Jakob Stokholm, Morten Rasmussen, and Rebecca Kofod Vinding. "Adverse Waist-for-Height Ratio Trajectories in Childhood Are Associated with Cardiometabolic and Cardiovascular Risk by Age 10." Endocrine Abstracts 110 (2025): P652. https://doi.org/10.1530/endoabs.110.P652.:contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
(Input from various sources)
(Rehash/Muhammad Faisal Arshad/MSM)